Wednesday 25 August 2010

Thoughts on the Australian election result

This from my mate at Kiwiblog, David Farrar...
  • Labor ran an awful campaign. Almost policy-free, and all about demonising Tony Abbott.
  • Tony Abbott ran a very good campaign, and really only stuffed up once on the campaign trail.
  • Gillard’s climate change policy of referring the issue to a citizen’s assembly was their biggest mistake as it alienated both sides on that issue and was seen as utterly cynical.
  • Rudd’s leaks against Gillard did damage Labor, and the anger over his rolling was a factor.
  • Even if Labor retain government, Gillard may face an unhappy caucus as the Rudd faction will point out she blew his majority.
  • The truth is Rudd probably would have lost by a bigger margin, but this will fade from memory.
  • While the three Independents can put Abbott into power, he will not have a Senate majority, so don’t assume it is a done deal for Abbott.
  • It is possible Labor and Greens could do a coalition deal, with some Green Senators becoming Ministers. They need Wilkie (likely) and at least one Independent to support them in the House, unless they pick up an extra seat on special votes. [Labor have since won the seat back off Andrew Wilkie.]
  • The two election parties were such a contrast – Labor half empty and dejected, and Liberals cheering their hero Tony.
  • Whatever happens, a three year term for the next Government looks unlikely.


Leuco Gaster said...

Mike, I think your mate David knows as much about Aussie politics as the average K1W1 - SFA! If Abbott's campaign was so good, how come most of the anti-Labor swing went to the Greens, not the Libs?

PteropusFNQ said...

I agree LG, even the Chinese have a better perspective on what happened.

Leuco Gaster said...

That said, David's other comments are pretty spot on, except for "Even if Labor retain government, Gillard may face an unhappy caucus as the Rudd faction will point out she blew his majority." If Labor forms govt, they will be so relieved that they'll be on their best behavior - we could then look forward to 3 years of stable govt, with Abbott flipping out with the frustration of impotence , followed by a return to a Labor majority.

Bryan Law said...

Leuco Lackey said “if Labor forms govt, they will be so relieved that they'll be on their best behaviour”. Maaaate! They’re already on their best behaviour. It’s just not very good.

I’ve been reassured by the hectoring, spinning, bravado of Gillard et al, because it shows they just don’t understand what happened, or what Australians want.

Labor won the 2PP! Who cares.

What folk want is a politics that listens, considers, acts, and delivers. Stop blathering and get to it.

Tropical Lassitude said...

Before Mr Bryan Law makes any further comment on federal political matters he must first explain why he backed Warren Entsch who just a few years ago he called a Nazi. The level of seriousness involved in a “peace activist” labelling someone a Nazi is unimaginably deep. The labelled person must be very very bad indeed. That person is irredeemable. That person is totally toxic. Yet without even a backward glance Law has back-flipped across the chasm and is now a supporter. For shame, he must explain himself. He still offers his big opinions, but are they worth anything? It seems that what he says today, no matter how severe, may be flippantly reversed tomorrow.

Terry Gregory, Freshwater said...

and before Mr Tropical Lassitude makes any further comment on the Federal election... s/he must first use his/her effing name~!!!!!!!!!

Bryan Law said...

Tropical Ulcer, I don’t have to answer your questions at all, but I will.

One thing I like about elections is that folk get deeply personally engaged and bring up material belonging to ages past. I’ve been amazed by how many “transgressions” some people still hold against me, and some of that back-biting has even been loosely connected to facts. For example Mr Ulcer has a fact buried deep in his blither somewhere – if you can refer to 2001 as “a few years ago”.

I never actually called Wazza a Nazi, I just painted swastikas on around 70 of his election signs in 2001, and distributed a pamphlet titled “Nazis for Howard”. I was visited by Federal Police, who decided they had more important business elsewhere. I was visited by Queensland Police, who arrested me and then let me go for lack of evidence, and I had a meeting with Wazza himself who stormed around his office saying harsh things about me while I tried to explain that from my point of view I was simply restoring truth to advertising.

(Before I leave that topic I’ll just note that Warren was pissed and unpleasant, but 8 years later Desley Boyle had my license, my job, and my liberty pulled when she went ape-shit over the much nicer inclusion of a Yacht Club Tiara on her state election signs. Of the two, Wazza was more honest)

I think Mr Ulcer is seriously demented if he really believes that an opinion once expressed cannot change, that once a black hat, always a black hat, and that there can be no humour in politics.

In 2010 I put Wazza no 6, and Jim Turnour no 7. Not in the belief that Wazza has changed, but in a deliberate strategy to remove Jim, boost the Greens, and achieve pretty much the situation we’re in now where meaningful change in the Parliament is at least possible.

Hopefully we’ll see what happens in the next three years, by which time Wazza may have earned last place on the ballot as his reward. It’s called swinging Mr Ulcer, and you might be happier if you tried some.

Bryan Law said...

"The level of seriousness involved in a “peace activist” labelling someone a Nazi is unimaginably deep".

Perhaps Mr Lassitude is a teensy bit shallow.

Leuco Gaster said...

Bryan, a lackey in this context would be someone who faithfully follows the party line despite their personal reservations. I acknowledge that Labor's campaign was lousy, that Rudd should have stuck to his climate change policy, and that we were too close to the Liberals on asylum seekers and 1 or 2 other issues. Nevertheless, I still hope for a Labor-led minority govt - that would be much better than the alternative. You, on the other hand, are apparently willing to abandon long-held principles in order to indulge your personal animosities.

Bryan Law said...

Leuco, ol' buddy, it seems to me that you ARE following the party line by supporting a Labor minority government despite your personal reservations about policy.

I don't much care who gets the nod. However I'm greatly concerned that the ALP now operates totally without principle, and cannot be relied upon even to engage in honest discussion.

Why don't you spend your energies organising honest processes in your own Party? Or have you put that in the "too hard" basket?

Thaddeus said...


"SEVERAL Liberal MPs who won their seats at Saturday's cliffhanger poll could face a High Court challenge - throwing a constitutional wild card into the election outcome.

Law experts suggested last night at least two Liberal candidates who won on Saturday could have breached the Constitution."

It's not over yet folks!

Tropical Lassitude said...

Mr Bryan Law. You say you don’t have to answer my questions. Oh yes you do. These questions go to the core of your character. Should anybody believe what you say? Is any opinion of yours more substantial than a puff of this afternoon’s hot air? Do your opinions derive from a personality that has any moral centre? Are you a worthy purveyor of opinion? One test of those last two issues goes to your ability to account for your actions without descending into personal abuse. Tropical Ulcer! Mr Ulcer! Very (toxically) imaginative indeed! You have really exposed an aspect of your personality Mr Law. But worse, you have not explained how a Nazi of yesterday can be embraced by you today. You haven’t answered that question and have used abuse as a pathetic and cowardly substitute.

Bryan Law said...

Why don't you account for your actions Mr Ulcer. As an anonymous contributer, I believe you are responsible for the Holocaust, the three recent Gulf wars, and the little ring of condensation that comes off a cold glass of milk. justify yourself please sir!

p.s. if I'm ever in a position where I have to rely on your good's seconal time.

Leuco Gaster said...

I'll pay that one, Bryan! You must be feeling better today.