Thursday, 19 August 2010

Cairns unemployment trending up from 9.9% to 10.3%

Unemployment numbers for Cairns and the region, released 11am this morning, show no improvement in the country's worst employment area.

There has been no statistically significant change, although the headline rate blipped up a touch from 9.9% to 10.3%.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the increase (see table 16) that shows no improvement for Far North Queensland, with unemployment stuck where it was last month.
The 10.3% figure, up from 9.9% in June and 8.9% in May, displays a worrying trend. It was over 10% in January, so not make a good headline in the final day of the election campaign for

for Leichhardt. There are 11.9% female unemployed in Far North Queensland, against 8.9% males.
The increase, albeit slight, is now back over the magical 10% number, and will not be welcome news for Labor, and something that Jim Turnour would been hoping to avoid before people walk into the polling booth on Saturday.

I've left a message for Jim Turnour to get his view on this.


Hingehead said...

Just a cautionary note about the ABS stats and the definition of 'unemployed'. 'Unemployed' means actively seeking work. If you don't have a job and aren't going to job interviews you aren't counted as unemployed by the ABS. Minor increases in the ABS rate can actually signal more confidence by the jobless that there is more chance of them getting a job so they re-enter 'the hunt'.

Has Jim ever commented on this blog?

Concerned of Bluewater said...

All that stimulus waste seems to be working ? All those jobs created , yeah right. Most of the dollars have gone back to the developers based in Brisbane.

Do not let these clowns get back into government.

Oliver Redlynch said...

Its all a matter of how you present the relevant (and sometimes irrelevant) facts and figures isn't it, something I don't think Jim's been particularly good at and suffered as a result. I found the following quite thought provoking even if it is ultimately presented as very anti-right-wing.

Cairns Bush Economist said...

The revisions to population benchmarks have adjusted some previous numbers a bit but nothing significant on a quick glance.

Looking at the graph - the female unemployment rate should be a worry as it really hasn't shown any trend improvement much at all and that last number is not far short of the previous high back in March.

Alison Alloway would have some comments on that as she has previously noted the bias of the stimulus to males.

The bounces in male unemployment are clearly related to tradies and the building collapses etc but the gap between male and female has now closed and even reversed a bit.

KitchenSlut said...

hingehead, the participation rate hasn't changed much and has actually declined a touch in the past few months with the most recent numbers May 72.5%, June 71.3%, July 71.0%.

KB :-) said...

Add one more on Monday morning - Mr Jim "scooter" Turnour :-)

Alison Alloway said...

The majority of the stimulus packages did not address female employment. In the Cairns region, there are far more women employed in part-time or casual positions than men. A good proportion of these would also be registered as seeking full-time work.

Cairns Resident said...

When discussing unemployment figures, it should be pointed out that Cairns has ALWAYS had one of the highest unemployment rates in Australia. It always did when I worked for the old Department of Social Security and then Centrelink. This is because, for many unemployed, it is the "end of the line."
Our unemployed figures would peak every winter, falling down in the summer months.

KitchenSlut said...

Cairns Resident your comments are not correct the current ABS series numbers only commenced in November 2007 and for at least the first six months or so the Far North aligned closely with national numbers before escalating to double the national figures as now.

These ABS numbers are NOT centrelink numbers and should not be compared with them!