Thursday 19 August 2010

CairnsBlog poll shows a divided constituency

With only two days before polling day, the race for the Far North will be without question, one of the most-watched contests on the national political landscape.

The electorate of Leichhardt is often a litmus test, matching the swing of the nation's vote.

The CairnsBlog poll, that I started the day Joolya, I mean Julia, called the election four weeks ago, shows a slight Labor majority. Thius is a turn-around, as the LNP have been
leading the results consistency for the last three weeks.

But here's the clincher. I assumed, incorrectly at the time, that the Fishing Party would be fielding a candidate in the House of Reps, however they are only running for the Senate in Queensland.

Therefore, you have to factor in where that 5% would have gone. It's probable it would not go to either The Greens nor Labor, but I suspect the LNP.

That being the case, and I'm no betting man, but on these numbers, Leichhardt looks set to fall back to the Liberals, after only one term with first-time MP, Jim Turnour

Of course this poll is not scientific, and I make no claim for the dodgy campaign workers that have worked out how to clear their browser cache in order to vote more than once. It does however, provide a reasonable snapshot of the community feeling.

SportingBet has also swing behind a Liberal win for Leichhardt, at $1.28 to Turnour's $3.50.

May the best man, or woman, win. No really, I mean that.


Glyn Cope said...

Here are some interesting statistics comparing the two major parties over spending, refugees, healthcare, education and broadband. Each statistic has had an acknowledgment of its source - something we don't see much of these days.

Jude Johnston said...

My bet - the polling booth at Clifton Beach will have more votes for LNP than ALP.
Just as the locals out here were over Kevin Byrne in the Council Elections and voted him out, they are disallusioned with both state and Federal non representation.

Hingehead said...

Hi Mike

I'm feeling dumb, but don't those figures suggest Turnour with Greens prefs would get over the line? He's slightly ahead on primary vote, and the Greens prefs would outweigh the Fising Parties.

:Kevin-John: Morgan. said...

Cairns is once again divided between the 2 major parties huh?
Just proves each day, that Paul Keating was 100% correct.
Australians are basically stupid!
Here we have a chance to finally put both major parties and their cronyistic style of politics in the grave where they belong, but most people do NOT understand how the "voting process" actually works.
If you're not happy with any of your politicians..put them LAST on the Ballot paper!
Give the money for your number 1 vote choice to an Independent or minor party, and maybe, just maybe, the corruptive, factional party type politics will finally get the message and be sent scurrying back from whence they came.
I don't have much faith in the Aussie people doing this, however there's always room for hope!
We have already shown the AEC to be criminal and corruptible, so it's about time we showed the public how damned corruptible our politicians are as well, by not voting for them at all.
The major parties will still get into office by way of stealth via the idiotic and oh so very corrupt preferential voting system.
By giving your vote to a lesser party or Independent we reduce the bank accounts of those major parties, and seriously make them take notice.
At election time, I believe we are supposed to show our contempt or praise for those who have done well for Australia in the area of politics. So, let's see who has the testicles to go through with NOT voting for the major parties, or will you be a "basically stupid" Aussie, who just doesn't care at all and do a donkey vote?

Miss Chief said...

Thank god I can't be held responsible for any part of the result in Leichhardt! As usual, Kennedy is a foregone conclusion. Those of us who live south of Cairns (up to and including Babinda) are living in the Land that Time and all levels of government, forgot.
Our area was robbed at Council amalgamation many years ago - and it's still continuing 'til this day. State Government think we're a pack of whingers because we dare to complain on lack of infrastructure and transport. The Feds ignore us because we prefer to elect a maverick. We may not always agree with him, but he does a mighty job covering a huge area.
We pay taxes and huge amounts of freight - what do we have to do to get noticed...besides selling our souls to one of the major political parties?

nocturnal congress said...

Will Entsch see out his term? Anyone had a good look at him? Overweight, huge stomach and those pickled sick looking eyes, a bit like bottled onions. I have enough medical knowledge to know he is not one fit mallee bull. I'm betting he is a seat warmer for someone waiting behind.

Thaddeus said...

Its all over game, set and match. Latest polling shows Abbott has too much of a lead. At least my Senate vote won't be lost.

KitchenSlut said...

I don't know which recent poll has shown that Thaddeus but if you are so confident why not stump up your own money at Centrebet where Abbott is still a $3.00 outsider? Backing your opponent is a good idea because then you will still have something to celebrate if your side loses!

Thaddeus said...

Ta, but I've got better things to bet on.

KitchenSlut said...

You have a better bet than 3 to 1 on something as certain as "all over game, set and match"? Please tell?