Saturday 15 August 2009

Rudd will go full term

Don't be sucked in by lazy media speculation about Prime Miniter Kevin Rudd calling an early election.

They've got nothing better to do and too few brain cells to do it properly. The proposition that Rudd would go to an early election in the foreseeable future is laughable.

Like him or not, Rudd still comands the popular vote and leads opinion polls with a comfortable margin. Will that change dramatically in three years? Unlikely.

What is the likely poll scenario in three years if there is the usual sort of popularity change? The ALP will win with some changes of seats. Would you execute Malcolm Turnbull by going to the polls early? Probably not. Would you let the Tories go for as long as possible to give them an opportunity to destroy themselves?

What is Kevin Rudd's big problem? The Senate, and specifically Steve Fielding (Xenophon has a brain, although he is completely mercenary, but that's OK). Forget the Tories and forget the Greens.

Would Steve Fielding be ousted if Rudd went to an early poll, especially a double dissolution? Unlikely. Voters don't like them and vote very conservatively in the Senate. Would Fielding be ousted if Rudd went his full term? Yes. Would Fielding come up for election this coming term? Yes (his term expires 2011).

Of course interesting events may occur between then and now that may change the scenario, but they usually don't. There is an early election - let's say nine months before the last possible date.

A good political mate says he'll buy me a bottle of red if I'm wrong.

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