Friday, 20 March 2009

Poll shows Mulgrave, Barron falls to LNP

A CairnsBlog-commissioned poll of 1,280 voters in the region has showed a strong swing against incumbent Labor, who currently hold all State seats in Far North Queensland.

430 were surveyed in Barron River, 450 in Cairns and 400 in Mulgrave, from 13th to 18th of March. There is a margin of error factored into such a poll, predicted to be around 2.5%. There were some that expressed a view, that the last few days of the campaign could alter their view.
153 refused to take part in the poll, and were excluded from the results below.

Union sources have told The Greens that internal Labor polling is showing Labor losing up to 3% (49-52). Polling from the Australian newspaper by professor of politics at Edith Cowan University Peter van Onselen, showed a similar trend, especially in FNQ. Similar polling shows Labor on track for a loss in Queensland, with swings of up to 10% in seats with margins of up to 8% in and around Brisbane and a collapse in Greens preference flows to the ALP, says Larvatus Prodeo, an Australian political Blog.

Questions asked:
  1. Who will you support at the State Election in Mulgrave / Barron River / Cairns?
  2. Would you be influenced to change your vote in the last few days?
  3. What are the most pressing issues for your electorate?

----Barron River
The swing in Barron River showed the most significant change. Although the polling showed it was still close, it displayed a significant shift from those that have supported the first-time Labor MP, who holds the seat with a 4.8% margin three years ago. LNP had often a mixed reception amongst respondents, some expressed concern about ability and representation.

Main issues: environmental management, access to representative, urban expansion, transport infrastructure, Smithfield town centre, Kuranda Range Road

ALP 43%
LNP 49%
GREEN 4.8%
UNDECIDED 3.2%


----Cairns
The results for strong Labor seat of Cairns showed that of those surveyed, they felt a need for change. However the Labor vote and support remained solid. Respondents showed lessening support for the incumbent representative MP, than the Labor party. Some said that Labor should have presented a new candidate, and others believed the current MP was strong and decisive. Many commended first-time LNP candidate on his ability to be across issues, however some expressed his age may be a factor.

Main issues: Environment, health and hospital, economy and job protection, heritage issues, tourism planning, Great Barrier Reef protect / fishing access, city construction / waterfront

ALP 50%
LNP 47%
GREEN 2.4%
FF 0.3%


----Mulgrave
The strongest theme to emerge through the Mulgrave poll was the existing strong support for former Labor MP has waned significantly. The strong personal following for Warren Pitt was not evident in the respondents, although some existing Labor supporters expressed a desire to back his son, as the new MP. LNP, as a new brand, was not recognised as a strong party, however Black presented an alternative that many found comfortable with, due to his age against 32-year-old Pitt.

Both Greens Hugh Whitehouse and Independent candidates Damian Byrnes received a favorable response from some.

Main issues: Development and Urban sprawl, health facilities, agriculture, roading, flood mitigation, transport infrastructure, Great Barrier Reef regulation


ALP 45%
LNP 49%
GREEN 3%
IND 1.2%

15 comments:

Barry Daniels said...

What's wrong Michael, didn't you like the outcome of your poll?

Bryan Outlaw said...

"A CairnsBlog-commissioned poll of 1,280 voters in the region has showed a strong swing against incumbent Labor"

Who did this poll, Michael? I'm advised that a poll of 1250 people would cost roughly $15,000. You and your blog have virtually no source of income. Admit what we all know, Michael. You made the whole thing up, didn't you mate!

Sally-Ann J, Freshwater said...

Hhahah Mr face-less / names-less Outlaw... how on earth do you know what income Michael has...how his poll was funded. And pray tell, how did you come to the $15,000?

I notice on all the Cairns Post polls on their crap website, they never ever publish how many partiicipate.. just the percentage... dodgy buggas. Maybe they make them up - like you suggest Outlaw. Personally, you should be banned from this blog mate.. u add no value at all.

You anon idoits really aren't worth debating with at all. You are such cowards hiding behind your fake nics.

David Nooten, Port Douglas said...

That's around $12 a phone call Outlaw. Are u nuts? We have a Voip phone these days at home, like a lot do with their broadband, and calls are next to nothing. Depending on what plan you have - u can pay as little as a cent a minute.

Only other costs to undertake a telephone survey is time and some students hungry for a free-Big Mac as payment.

Arthur Festerbestertester said...

polls are generally used by media outlets, especially news corporation, publishers of the cairns post, the courier mail and the australian, to push their views and influence voters. that's the problem.

KitchenSlut said...

In what will probably be the only time I go remotely close to supporting the Outlaw some of the references here to telephone costs etc are just extraordinarily dumb in the business context that the cost of a telephone call is largely irrelvant to a professional poll where the primary costs are going to be labour and intellectual property.

Then again, numeracy has never been a powerful constituency, and Queensland, under the influence of the teachers unions, is a reminder of that in the woeful numeracy performance numbers in this state?

Much as I enjoy your intellect and comments Festerbestertester I still think that the 'pushing of views' in newspapers comes mostly from the journalists rather than the proprietor and that Murdoch is particularly misunderstood in that he will promote anything that sells newspapers rather than having an objective to promote any partisan view. The allegedly close polls are evidence of this when Centrebet said the opposite? The continual headlines of a close poll can only have been to the benefit of the ALP rather than the reverse?

Confirmation bias reigns!The most partisan news publication nationally is indeed from the Murdoch stable but is the Courier-Mail in Brisbane? Chocked to the gills with partisans and ex ALP hack staffers on an unprecedented scale?

Clifton Ratbag said...

Arthur Festerbestertester has hit the nail on the head, along with the Outlaw. THERE WAS NO POLL, was there, Michael? Since "poll results" are used to manipulate the electorate, this technique is being used by CairnsBlog just as inappropriately as the Cairns Post, or the Courier Mail.

Michael P Moore said...

Been away travelling today and only returned to see the abuse from 'Bryan Outlaw'.

If he should fire any more personal abuse, like claiming he is aware on my - or my Blog's - income - I will simply ban future comments. It shows a rather poor sence and ability to debate when one has to fire off personal attacks with no basis of truth. It's always appears the way, that people who are unwilling to declare who they are, fire off personal attacks.

Of course, everyone knows who I am, what I stand for/against, and my background. Yet we know nothing of 'Outlaw'. Most of those that comment on here with their name are known and are happy to publically comment and contribute faily to the debate, in a mature way. However, fictious people like 'Outlaw' simply aim to stir everyone up, like Factman did prior to the 08 Council election.

That said, the poll I undertook was in partnership with my former parliamentary collegue David Farrar at KiwiBlog, and his political research polling company Curia. It did not cost $15,000, nor half of that. I mined the original data and the questions asked where as I published.

As a great majority of polls indicated last week, they showed a leaning towards LNP / away from Labour - whic reflected the general results - and of course are only an indication of the sample contacted.

As many have already started to discuss, the final results surprized many commentators - left and right - including almost all local ALP MP's.

Michael P Moore said...

The same goes for Clifton Ratbag - who seems to have earn't his nicname. I will remove all your future comments posted here, should they continue to make accusations and attack the integrity of this Blog.

Arthur Festerbestertester said...

kitchen old cobber, there is an apposite saying: he who pays the piper ... etc etc. rest assured that it applies to news corporation like no other media organisation. i would hazard a guess that you, like me, are a reader of the oz business pages. you only need a quick squiz at the news corporation results coverage to know how savage the piper must be. Re the media in general, I refer you to today's crikey, including mark bahnisch, possum comitatus and bernard keane. i also refer you in particular to the fantasy written by wardill in the courier-mail and parnell in the oz as examples. this is truly dreadful stuff, deliberately misleading and as far removed from the numbers in the polls as i am from being queen of england.

Lee Stuart said...

Who cares - the polls got it wrong. I note with interest that on the cairnsblog poll there is no mention that the Yacht Club was an issue. In fact did I hear Wendy Richardson correctly on the McKenzie, Byrne and King radio broadcast on Saturday evening say that she did not campaign hard on the Yacht Club issue because when she was doorknocking people were either not aware of the issue or thought it was a dead issue? Maybe she should have told Bryan Law and Michael Moore so that they could have got on with some constructive campaigning.

Michael P Moore said...

No, you're wrong Lee. The Yacht Club building did come up and was noted under "heritage issues" in the poll.

I understand that Wendy received many positive comments about her involvement with the Yacht campaign and not only gave her name recognition, but she gained respect for supporting a wide-scale grass-roots community campaign. On Friday last week, she stood in front of what is left of the Yacht club building at JCU and the TV were there to listen.

Syd Walker said...

Why do you think your poll undercounted the Green vote so significantly, Mike?

KitchenSlut said...

I don't think we are too far removed on motivations of the media Festerbestertester but may diverge on some philosophical issues!

Personally I have given up reading the Oz some time ago and suffice with the odd glance at Business Spectator although doubdtless some of the views there will apall the CFMEU cheer squad in here. Teams are dangerous! Look to the psych research on this! Don't think much of Bahnisch sorry!

Apart from any other biases my aversion is tribalism and I see much here particularly Lee.

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