Friday, 16 July 2010

2% apart for Jim and Warren, but who are you going to bet on?

Who ya gunna bet on?
The race for Leichhardt is often touted as a crucial measure of a national poll. This week's Cairns Sun says they were even on $1.90, however SportingBet today is putting Labor's Jim Turnour at $1.80 and LNP's Warren Entsch at $1.95.

Former Family First candidate and now independent Yodie Batzke, is tied on $26 with "any other party."

This election will answer a pressing question for Labor, does Warren Entsch still have a strong personal vote?

"The strength of the mining industry in Leichhardt may help his cause because of the Resources Super Profits Tax issue, but Jim Turnour’s incumbency - combined with his [narrow 4%] margin means it will be tight," SportingBet says.
  • "Retired member for Leichhardt Warren Entsch will make a dramatic political comeback to challenge Jim Turnour for his old seat of Leichhardt, which fell to Labor last election following his (temporary) exit from politics." -SportingBet
I wouldn't call it a 'dramatic comeback', but nevertheless, it has often been said that the outcome of Leichhardt, is a litmus test for the entire country.
  • "The seat has been the site of an ugly brawl following the Bligh State Government's decision to protects rivers in far north Queensland from development under its Wild Rivers legislation.

    This has been staunchly opposed by pro-development indigenous groups and the Abbott opposition alike, and will set the scene for an epic showdown this election. As if that weren't enough, other factors in play will be the usual hot button issues of balancing the needs of tourism, mining and the environment which may give the Greens an opportunity to torpedo Jim Turnour's campaign.
The Cape York Wild Rivers debate will be a dividing argument between the parties. Many traditional Labors voters, especially in Cape indigenous communities, are like to abandon Turnour, even though it is a State issue.

Roy Morgan's pollings suggests LNP would now win Queensland. If a Federal Election were held today, the LNP would now win the Queensland ALP marginal seats of Flynn, Longman and Dawson, while the ALP would retain Leichhardt, according to a telephone Morgan Poll conducted in the last week of June. The ALP vote was virtually unchanged at 54%.

Only 206 electors were polled, so it's a very narrow sample.


NB: The Two-Party Preferred results for the 2007 Federal Election have been recalculated taking into account boundary changes undertaken at the 2009 Queensland redistribution. 206 electors were polled in the electorate of Leichhardt. Of all electors surveyed, 4% of electors did not nominate a party.

The Primary Voting Intention results from the 2007 Federal Election are taken from the boundaries used at the 2007 Federal Election.

Gary Morgan notes the Queensland marginal seat poll shows key ALP seats of Flynn (LNP 55% / ALP 45%) and Longman (LNP 56.5% / ALP 43.5%) are set to swing decisively to the LNP at the Federal election.

"The seat of Dawson is now on a knife-edge with the LNP (51%) just ahead of the ALP (49%). ALP support in the Far North Queensland seat of Leichhardt has held up more strongly with the ALP (54%) clearly in front of the LNP (46%)," Gary Morgan says. “These worrying results for the ALP come despite the ALP’s decision to change leaders [at the end of June] and shows new Prime Minister Julia Gillard has experienced no ‘honeymoon effect’ in these key Queensland marginal seats."

Morgan results by gender shows a "potential problem for the Gillard Government as significantly more men than women prefer the LNP in the seats of Flynn and Longman. The changing of the Mining ‘Super Profits’ Tax helped the ALP regain support in the mining seats of Flynn and Dawson. Morgan polling showed that more Australians disapprove than approve of the tax.

It's fair to surmise, that Leichhardt is too close to call.

SportingBet has the Federal race far more clear cut for Labor on $1.28, and the Coalition at $3.50.

When it comes to the prediction for the election date, August 28th is to top at $1.80, followed by August 21st at $2. Any Date after November 27th, is polling at $26.

8 comments:

Smithfield Sam said...

These "polls" are electoral manipulations. While most Australians seem to be too lazy to eject politicians no matter how they perform, Jim Turnour is the "poster boy" for an empty suit. To go along with his empty brain. His wife is known to rehearse him every morning with the Labor party "answers of the day" that he dutifully spouts at every turn.

This is one seat that clearly is going to elect someone else.

Pemulwuy said...

California votes to legalize "pot" in a few months...now thats progress!..... and love for humanity..

these guys turnour and entsch are just stooges for corrupted police crops and secret cocaine imports.... and warmongers...

ask ones self "who profits from the billions spent"...

total rascists both of them with nt intervention and boarder policy.... white power boys..

no hope now for Australia unless y'all vote for fruit and vegetables..

nocturnal congress said...

Sheeeesh, "Pemulwuy" how many cones did ya smoke this morning?
I dunno where you are mate, but you're certainly not in the same place as the rest of us.

Pemulwuy said...

nocturnal congress friend..

I know where you are..... you are in hell.. but think you are in heaven.... haha..

what is so astounding bala...

y'all so totally retarded and brainwashed!....now THAT is astounding..

y'all dont seem to realize good people are being murdered (as in wars etc) and environment destroyed because of "egos"...ie bullshit and lies..

that's horrible!

If as you imply that one needs to smoke "pot" to be aware of conscience..... well cannabis should be compulsory in schools .... of course magic mushrooms is a tertiary subject compulsory for them seeking public office...

speed/ice/etc is not in this league...these white man poison are your karma now .... it will only get worse..

remember what msm has told you is lies..

freaky how you intimate that unless we smoke "cones" we love killing!

hope the children read this stuff and rebel as only rebels attain to their enlightenment.......the rest are slaves to Moloch...

seems even fruit/veg is rebellious these days so just once again attests to the success of the authorities to divide conquer and keep us dumb and broken..

Joke Belching-spew-Petersen lives

no cones jealous fool but love for truth and rights.... hopefully "the times they are a changin'...

7th generation north queenslander ....here friend of ATSI too!....so catch up yub or byrne in hell......

Warren and Jim are weaklings vampiring on sick people and party politics is total smoke and mirrors.....

Oh! where did the $trillions go?... Oh massive new high tech military/drugs/spareparts bulk order from his banker friends factory oh!

Bryan Law said...

I've been saying for some time that Jim Turnour will not be easy to dislodge from the green leather benches of Parliament.

Julia Gillard, like Anna Bligh, will be trying for a quick election win B4 people realise she's the same as KRudd (perhaps a tad more brutal).

The only arrow in Labor's quiver is a scare campaign about Brother Abbott.

I'll be doing everything I can to unseat Turnour - because he is a shining example of today's political problems. Does nothing. Thinks nothing. Is loyal to his factional bosses. If we put him back in, we'll deserve everything we get.

Bryan Outlaw said...

When Bryan Law sez he's "doing everything he can", he means he's standing around watching others actually do the work and take the risks. How come fatboy hasn't served his jail time yet?

Thaddeus said...

Good gah Bryan Outlaw, I just laughed so hard at your comment, I really thought I was having a heart attack. In the name of Christ man, have a little regard for us fatboys, eh?

Hugh Whitehouse (via Facebook) said...

who are you going to bet on? Warren