2% apart for Jim and Warren, but who are you going to bet on?

Who ya gunna bet on?

The race for Leichhardt is often touted as a crucial measure of a national poll. This week's Cairns Sun says they were even on $1.90, however SportingBet today is putting Labor's Jim Turnour at $1.80 and LNP's Warren Entsch at $1.95.

Former Family First candidate and now independent Yodie Batzke, is tied on $26 with "any other party."

This election will answer a pressing question for Labor, does Warren Entsch still have a strong personal vote?

"The strength of the mining industry in Leichhardt may help his cause because of the Resources Super Profits Tax issue, but Jim Turnour’s incumbency - combined with his [narrow 4%] margin means it will be tight," SportingBet says.

• "Retired member for Leichhardt Warren Entsch will make a dramatic political comeback to challenge Jim Turnour for his old seat of Leichhardt, which fell to Labor last election following his (temporary) exit from politics." -SportingBet

I wouldn't call it a 'dramatic comeback', but nevertheless, it has often been said that the outcome of Leichhardt, is a litmus test for the entire country.

• "The seat has been the site of an ugly brawl following the Bligh State Government's decision to protects rivers in far north Queensland from development under its Wild Rivers legislation.
  
  This has been staunchly opposed by pro-development indigenous groups and the Abbott opposition alike, and will set the scene for an epic showdown this election. As if that weren't enough, other factors in play will be the usual hot button issues of balancing the needs of tourism, mining and the environment which may give the Greens an opportunity to torpedo Jim Turnour's campaign.

The Cape York Wild Rivers debate will be a dividing argument between the parties. Many traditional Labors voters, especially in Cape indigenous communities, are like to abandon Turnour, even though it is a State issue.

Roy Morgan's pollings suggests LNP would now win Queensland. If a Federal Election were held today, the LNP would now win the Queensland ALP marginal seats of Flynn, Longman and Dawson, while the ALP would retain Leichhardt, according to a telephone Morgan Poll conducted in the last week of June. The ALP vote was virtually unchanged at 54%.

Only 206 electors were polled, so it's a very narrow sample.

NB: The Two-Party Preferred results for the 2007 Federal Election have been recalculated taking into account boundary changes undertaken at the 2009 Queensland redistribution. 206 electors were polled in the electorate of Leichhardt. Of all electors surveyed, 4% of electors did not nominate a party.

The Primary Voting Intention results from the 2007 Federal Election are taken from the boundaries used at the 2007 Federal Election.

Gary Morgan notes the Queensland marginal seat poll shows key ALP seats of Flynn (LNP 55% / ALP 45%) and Longman (LNP 56.5% / ALP 43.5%) are set to swing decisively to the LNP at the Federal election.

"The seat of Dawson is now on a knife-edge with the LNP (51%) just ahead of the ALP (49%). ALP support in the Far North Queensland seat of Leichhardt has held up more strongly with the ALP (54%) clearly in front of the LNP (46%)," Gary Morgan says. “These worrying results for the ALP come despite the ALP’s decision to change leaders [at the end of June] and shows new Prime Minister Julia Gillard has experienced no ‘honeymoon effect’ in these key Queensland marginal seats."

Morgan results by gender shows a "potential problem for the Gillard Government as significantly more men than women prefer the LNP in the seats of Flynn and Longman. The changing of the Mining ‘Super Profits’ Tax helped the ALP regain support in the mining seats of Flynn and Dawson. Morgan polling showed that more Australians disapprove than approve of the tax.

It's fair to surmise, that Leichhardt is too close to call.

SportingBet has the Federal race far more clear cut for Labor on $1.28, and the Coalition at $3.50.

When it comes to the prediction for the election date, August 28th is to top at $1.80, followed by August 21st at $2. Any Date after November 27th, is polling at $26.